Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
